Observational studyColorectal cancer

ctDNA-based molecular residual disease and survival in resectable colorectal cancer

Nat Med · 20242240 patients (of 6061 enrolled)
Nakamura Y, Watanabe J, Akazawa N, et al. Nat Med. 2024. 30:3272-3283
Study type
Observational study
Study name
GALAXY (CIRCULATE-Japan)
Design
Prospective observational cohort study (updated GALAXY analysis, CIRCULATE-Japan); registration: UMIN000039205
Sample size
2240 patients (of 6061 enrolled)
Source
Nat Med · 2024

In plain words

This update of the GALAXY study, with more than 2000 patients, showed that a positive ctDNA blood test after surgery for bowel cancer is linked not only to the cancer coming back but also to shorter survival. The good news is that in ctDNA-positive patients, chemotherapy greatly reduced the risk, and patients whose blood stayed clear of ctDNA had very good results.

Key results

20.57% vs 85.10%
24-month DFS: MRD-positive vs negative
HR 11.99 (95% CI 10.02–14.35), P < 0.0001
HR 9.68
Overall survival: MRD-positive vs negative
P < 0.0001; median follow-up 23 months
Adjusted HR 0.23
Benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in MRD-positive patients
95% CI 0.15–0.35, P < 0.0001; not significant in MRD-negative patients (HR 0.70, P = 0.091)
89.0% vs 3.3%
Sustained vs transient clearance (24-month DFS)
24-month OS 100.0% vs 82.3%

Treatment arms and regimens

1MRD-positive (ctDNA-positive in the postoperative MRD window)

15.93% of patients (336 of 2109). Adjuvant chemotherapy at the physician's discretion (non-randomised).

2MRD-negative

1773 patients; adjuvant chemotherapy or observation at the physician's discretion.

Source of the regimen details: Observational study; chemotherapy regimen and dose at the physician's discretion and not specified in the paper

Doses are given for the information of specialists, as in this study’s protocol, and are not a prescription. Every drug must be prescribed by the treating physician for the individual patient.

Study population

Patients with resectable stage 2 to 3 colon cancer or stage 4 colorectal cancer; patients with stage 1 to 3 rectal cancer were not included in the analysis. Personalised tumour-informed ctDNA assay (Signatera).

Endpoints

Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) by ctDNA status; benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy; sustained versus transient ctDNA clearance.

Safety and side effects

This is an observational diagnostic study and reports no treatment safety data.

Clinical significance and place in guidelines

This analysis provided the first large data set on the association of ctDNA-based MRD with overall survival in resectable colorectal cancer and showed the importance of serial ctDNA monitoring (sustained versus transient clearance). The evidence is observational, and changing treatment based on ctDNA should be confirmed in randomised trials.

Limitations

Observational, non-randomised study (selection bias in receipt of chemotherapy is possible); moderate follow-up (median 23 months); mostly Japanese population; funding and collaboration from the assay manufacturer.

This summary was prepared by the editorial team from the published paper; the original paper is the final reference. Read the original abstract on PubMed.