There is no single number for the life expectancy of people with cancer: it depends on the type of cancer, its stage, the features of the cancer cells, age and health before the illness, and the response to treatment [1]. In the United States today, 7 in every 10 people with cancer are alive 5 years after diagnosis, compared with about 5 in the mid-1970s [2]. A "5-year survival rate" means how many of every 100 patients are alive 5 years after diagnosis; it does not mean that a patient will live for only 5 years, and it cannot predict one person's future [1].
Key points
- A "5-year survival rate" means how many of every 100 patients are alive 5 years after diagnosis; it does not mean "only 5 years to live". Many of these people have been cured and live for many years [1, 7].
- Statistics describe large groups of patients and come from people treated years ago; they cannot tell one person's future, and newer treatments are not yet reflected in them [1].
- The longer you survive, the better the outlook: in one study, of the people still alive 5 years after a diagnosis of lung cancer, 7 in 10 lived another 5 years [5].
- The doctor who knows your situation is the best person to explain your prognosis; how much you want to know is your choice [1].
What does a 5-year survival rate mean?
A 5-year survival rate means how many of every 100 people with a type of cancer are alive 5 years after diagnosis. Doctors use the 5-year period most often, but 1-year, 2-year or other survival rates are sometimes reported too [1].
This number does not mean that a patient will live for only 5 years. Five years is simply the time chosen for comparison; many of the people who live for 5 years have been cured and end up with the same life expectancy as people of the same age without cancer [7].
| Statistic | What it means |
|---|---|
| Overall survival | How many of every 100 patients have not died from any cause during a set period after diagnosis [1] |
| Cancer-specific survival | How many of every 100 patients have not died from that cancer during the period; usually based on the cause of death in medical records [1] |
| Relative survival | Compares the survival of patients with that of people of the same age and sex who do not have the disease, and shows how much the disease shortens life [3]; US national statistics report this figure [2] |
| Disease-free or progression-free survival | How many of every 100 patients have no sign of cancer (or no growth of the cancer) during a period after treatment [1] |
| Median survival | The time by which half of a group of patients are still alive; if median survival is 2 years, half of the patients live longer than 2 years and the other half for a shorter time [4] |
What does life expectancy with cancer depend on?
These things determine the prognosis (the likely course of the illness) [1]:
- The type of cancer and where it is in the body
- The stage of the cancer, meaning its size and whether it has spread to other parts of the body (What are the stages of cancer?)
- The grade of the cancer, meaning how abnormal the cells look under a microscope and how fast they are likely to grow (What is cancer grade?)
- Features of the cancer cells, such as genetic changes or hormone receptors
- Age and health before the cancer
- The response to treatment
| Cancer | Out of every 10 patients, how many are alive 5 years later? |
|---|---|
| Thyroid | Almost all [2] |
| Prostate | Almost all [2] |
| Testis | More than 9 [2] |
| Melanoma | More than 9 [2] |
| Breast (women) | 9 [2] |
| Hodgkin lymphoma | Almost 9 [2] |
| Womb (endometrium) | 8 [2] |
| Kidney | 8 [2] |
| Bladder | 8 [2] |
| Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 7 [2] |
| Cervix | 7 [2] |
| Leukaemia | 7 [2] |
| Bowel (colon and rectum) | 6 to 7 [2] |
| Multiple myeloma | 6 [2] |
| Ovary | 5 [2] |
| Stomach | 4 [2] |
| Brain | 3 [2] |
| Lung | 3 [2] |
| Liver | 2 [2] |
| Oesophagus | 2 [2] |
| Pancreas | About 1 [2] |
Relative survival of people diagnosed in the United States between 2015 and 2021 [2]. Each person's chances depend on the stage and features of their own cancer; see these figures by stage on the page "What are the stages of cancer?".
Read more about each cancer: Is breast cancer curable?, Is prostate cancer curable?, Is lung cancer curable?, Is leukaemia curable?, Is lymphoma curable? and Is childhood cancer curable? See also: Which cancers are most curable? and What is stage 4 cancer?
Why do statistics not apply to one person?
Statistics come from large groups of patients and cannot tell exactly what will happen to you; everyone is different, and treatments and how people respond to them vary greatly [1]. Two other points matter too:
- Statistics lag behind treatment: it takes years for the benefit of new treatments and new ways of finding cancer to show up in statistics [1]. For example, the latest US figures are about people diagnosed between 2015 and 2021 [2]; treatments that have arrived since then are not yet in these numbers.
- Outcomes keep improving: in the United States, about 5 in every 10 people with cancer lived for 5 years in the mid-1970s, and today 7 in 10 do [2]. In chronic myeloid leukaemia, with targeted tablets, this number has more than tripled, and most patients have a near-normal life expectancy [2, 10].
A prognosis is an "educated guess"; your doctor cannot be certain how your illness will go either [1].
The longer you survive, the better the outlook
Survival statistics are usually counted from the day of diagnosis. But for someone whose diagnosis was some time ago, the more important question is: "Now that I have come this far, what is my outlook?" This is called "conditional survival" [5, 6]. In a large study in Australia, patients' outlook usually improved with each year that passed [5]:
- All cancers together: at diagnosis, nearly 7 in 10 people lived for 5 years; of those who had already passed 5 years, 9 in 10 lived another 5 years [5].
- Lung cancer: fewer than 2 in 10 at diagnosis; but 7 in 10 of those who had already passed 5 years [5].
- Bowel cancer: about 7 in 10 at diagnosis; after 5 years, more than 9 in 10 [5].
In stomach, bowel, cervical and thyroid cancer and melanoma, survivors' outlook became almost the same as that of people of the same age without cancer less than 10 years after diagnosis [5]; but in cancers such as breast and prostate cancer, a slightly higher risk remained for longer [5, 6]. In a study in the Netherlands, too, the differences seen at the start between age groups, women and men and different stages had largely disappeared after 5 to 10 years of survival [6].
Cancer survival in different countries
The chance of surviving cancer is not the same in every country. In a worldwide study of more than 37 million patients in 71 countries, 5-year survival for breast cancer was about 9 in 10 women in the United States and Australia, but about 7 in India; and in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, it ranged from about 5 in 10 children in Ecuador to more than 9 in Finland [8]. Researchers regard these figures as a measure of how well each country's health system diagnoses and treats cancer [8].
In Iran, national data on children with cancer showed that about 8 in 10 children were alive 5 years later, and this number improved over ten years: from about 7 for children diagnosed between 2005 and 2009 to about 8 for those diagnosed between 2010 and 2014 [9]. Read more: 5 steps to find cancer early and Complete, on-time treatment without breaks
How do I talk to my doctor about prognosis?
Some people want to know everything about their prognosis and find it easier to cope when they know more; for others, statistics are confusing or frightening. How much you want to know is your choice [1]. If you decide you want to know more, the doctor who knows your situation best is the best person to explain your prognosis and what the statistics mean [1]. These questions can help:
- What is the goal of my treatment: cure, long-term control or easing symptoms?
- What can someone with my type and stage of cancer usually expect?
- What in my case makes the outlook better or worse?
- Are there newer treatments that these statistics do not include?
You can also bring a family member to write down the questions and answers. Read more: A guide for families and carers of people with cancer and Anxiety, depression and fear of cancer coming back
Frequently asked questions
How long does cancer last?
It depends on the type and stage of the cancer. Many patients are cured, and after treatment ends their risk eventually becomes the same as that of people of the same age without cancer [7]. Some cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia, are controlled with tablets for years, like a chronic illness [10]. In some cancers, such as pancreatic and liver cancer, the disease often progresses faster in people who are not cured [7].
What is life expectancy after cancer treatment?
For many people who have been cured, a normal lifespan. In a large European study, more than 9 in 10 patients with testicular cancer and about 2 in 3 patients with breast cancer ended up with the same risk of death as people of the same age without cancer [7]. The longer it has been, the better the outlook [5, 6]. Keep up your regular follow-up: What is cancer recurrence and how is it followed up?
My doctor said "median survival is one year"; does it mean I have only one year to live?
Does cancer shorten life more in older people?
Age and health before the cancer are among the factors that affect prognosis [1]. But in one study, the differences seen at the start between age groups had largely disappeared after 5 to 10 years of survival [6]. Age alone does not tell whether a treatment will help you; weigh this up with your doctor.
Why do cancer survival rates differ between sources?
Definitions and interpreting survival statistics (for doctors)
For physicians
Relative survival is the percentage of patients alive at the end of the period divided by the percentage of the general population of the same age and sex alive at the end of the same period; it shows the excess mortality due to the disease without needing the cause of death [1, 3]. In SEER (diagnosed 2015 to 2021, followed to 2022), 5-year relative survival for all cancers is 70% (49% in 1975 to 1977). Part of the survival gain reflects lead time and overdiagnosis (breast, prostate, kidney) and changes in subtype mix; for example, more pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours, with 72% survival, versus 8% for ductal adenocarcinoma. Mortality is a less biased indicator of progress [2]. CONCORD-3 reported age-standardised 5-year net survival (ICSS weights) for 37.5 million patients from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries (diagnosed 2000 to 2014); for diagnoses in 2010 to 2014: breast 90.2% in the USA, 89.5% in Australia and 66.1% in India; childhood ALL from 49.8% in Ecuador to 95.2% in Finland [8].
Conditional survival. In the Queensland registry (aged 15 to 89, diagnosed 1982 to 2007, period analysis 1998 to 2007), 5-year relative survival for all cancers was 67.0% at diagnosis, 79.9% after 1 year, 90.8% after 5 years and 95.0% after 10 years; lung 14.0%, 31.6%, 70.9% and 82.9%; pancreas 6.9%, 26.5%, 83.7% and 92.2%; colorectal 65.9%, 77.1%, 93.2% and 99.2%; prostate almost unchanged (85.6% at diagnosis and 87.7% after 10 years) [5]. In the Eindhoven registry (aged 25 to 74), conditional 5-year relative survival for colorectal cancer, melanoma and stage I breast cancer exceeded 95% after 3 to 15 years, but for stomach, lung, stage II or III breast, prostate cancer and Hodgkin lymphoma it did not exceed 75% to 94% [6]. In EUROCARE-5, the cure fraction was 94% for testis, 66% for breast and 63% for prostate and below 10% for liver, lung and pancreas; the life expectancy of fatal cases was less than 6 months for liver, pancreatic, brain, gallbladder and lung cancer [7].
Patients' understanding of the goal of treatment. In the CanCORS cohort (1,193 patients receiving chemotherapy for metastatic lung or colorectal cancer), 69% of lung and 81% of colorectal cancer patients did not report understanding that chemotherapy was not at all likely to cure their cancer; this inaccurate belief was more common among patients who rated their communication with their physician very favourably (OR 1.90, highest vs lowest third) [11].
References
11 referencesShow all references, 1 with a study cardClose the reference list
Numbers in the text, such as [1], refer to these sources. Sources with a “Study card” button are summarised in the site’s evidence library.
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- 9Nationwide trends in childhood cancer incidence and survival in Iran: analysis of national cancer registry data, 2005-2014
- 10
- 11Patients' expectations about effects of chemotherapy for advanced cancer
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